Mining Metals Scenarios

Topics: Economic growth, Scenario planning, Strategic management Pages: 94 (14033 words) Published: March 12, 2015
WEF_Metals and Mining Scenarios

15.1.2010

17:32

Page 1

Mining & Metals Scenarios to 2030

WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
in collaboration with
the

INTERNATIONAL FINANCE CORPORATION

and

MCKINSEY & COMPANY

WEF_Metals and Mining Scenarios

15.1.2010

17:32

Page 2

Description

Green Trade Alliance

Rebased Globalism

Resource Security

Geo-economic
landscape

In 2030, the world is divided and
countries are defined economically
by whether or not they belong to
the Green Trade Alliance (GTA),
formed in 2016 to promote
“environmental sustainability
without compromising
competitiveness.” GTA countries,
including some industrialised,
resource-rich and developing
countries, have experienced a
period of accelerating innovation
and lifestyle changes. While there
is strong alignment among GTA
countries, non-GTA countries
operate independently.

Environmental standards are
used as the basis for
protectionist measures by GTA
countries
Limited cross-border flows
between GTA and non-GTA
countries

In 2030, the world is committed
to realising the benefits of global
interconnection but has become
far more complex and multipolar.
Power comes from control of
resources as well as possession
of capital, with resource-rich
countries playing by their own
rules. Civil society has gained
power, resulting in various local
laws that affect global
corporations.

Economic power is held both by
markets where there is strong
demand – such as the EU, the
US, China, Brazil and India – and
by countries that control
strategically important resources
Cross-border flows are extremely
open
Free market principles hold
forth, favouring privatization and
financial liberalization
Some states set out to capture
more social value from their
commodities through in-country
processing and manufacturing

In 2030, the era of globalisation is
a distant memory as nations
prioritise narrow self-interest.
They hoard domestic resources,
enter cartels based on regional
and ideological alliances and
resource blocs, and engage in
neo-colonialism and import
substitution strategies.

Markets are shaped by state
interventionism
Trade is defined by a complex
web of protectionist barriers
and preferential agreements
Limited cross-border flows of
products, labour and capital

G

WEF_Metals and Mining Scenarios

15.1.2010

Geopolitical landscape

y

s
y

17:32

Page 3

Economic outlook

Environmental outlook

World with tense relations
between GTA and non-GTA
countries as they use different
approaches to compete for
resources
Emergence of the Sustainable
Trade Organization (STO) to
facilitate and enforce GTA trade
agreements

Global GDP growth averages
around 2 % annually, as a result
of shifting trade patterns
In the GTA, an important new
metric called GDP+ incorporates
environmental, sustainability
and social indicators
Investment capital comes with
“green ties” or “no ties”
depending on its origin

In GTA countries, there are
decisive and radical
environmental policies and
changing consumer behaviours.
Advanced “cradle to cradle”
metals and minerals stewardship
helps determine trade-offs
about resource use
In some non-GTA countries,
action is motivated by the desire
to overcome impediments to
economic growth and in others
there is no effort to address
environmental concerns

Multipolar world with broad
commitment to reaping the
benefits of globalisation and
interconnectedness
International decision-making
becomes cumbersome with
numerous players included in the
process. Agreements are
reached bilaterally or among
smaller groups of countries
Proliferation of local regulations,
which are strongly enforced

Global GDP growth averages
around 4 % annually
High levels of investment capital
are available, but there are often
strict conditions on how
investments will affect social
development
Demand for...
Continue Reading

Please join StudyMode to read the full document

You May Also Find These Documents Helpful

  • Mining Essay
  • Metals Essay
  • Scenario Essay
  • Scenario Essay
  • Scenario Essay
  • Mining Essay
  • Scenario Planning Essay
  • Communication Scenarios Research Paper

Become a StudyMode Member

Sign Up - It's Free